Do you remember that wonderful future that was supposed to be happening? A coherent, prosperous humanity, no poverty, incredible science, etc.? Not exactly there yet, do you think? The moon race is a symptom of why you’re not.
Small minds and nanoscopic perspectives are the main reasons for this lack of advancement. The hard practical work of getting into space is getting done, but incredibly slowly. The USA dithered for a few decades. NASA managed to retain good programs, but the human physical presence in space is still basically where it was in the 1990s.
Currently the USA, China, India, eventually Russia, and now Japan are in a race for the moon. This situation has nothing to do with futuristic ideals. It’s all about mining and positioning for the exploitation of resources.
The space investment options also include crypto, I notice. That’s reassuring. The world’s leading criminal money launderers would like to go into space, would they? How adorable. You can see where this money’s going before it goes anywhere.
This mentality isn’t what you could call advanced thinking. The logic is lousy. It’s based on the theory of exploiting unquantified resources at unknown levels of difficulty and making a few more bucks.
On this basis, snail-speed rockets and automated buckets and spades are supposed to deliver trillions of dollars. The huge amounts of dangerous space junk about which nobody has done anything won’t be a problem. Sure.
Meanwhile, back in reality, exactly who does what where and when on the moon is hardly clear. Exploration can be demanding and time-and-space consuming. Budgets are not unlimited or guaranteed. Nor is reality. This is a very different league from Musk’s barrages of satellites.
Capital outlay must include some acknowledgment of the degrees of difficulty involved. It’ll cost more, not less if there isn’t an uncharacteristic outbreak of efficiency somewhere.
There will be mistakes, cost overruns, and human neuroses to be dealt with. The risks are huge, the dangers are all too real, and the ability to deal with those risks, particularly with human lives, is questionable at best.
Nor is this altruistic money grab likely to be simple on Earth. The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 sets the rules, but with the insane politics on Earth now, that can hardly be taken for granted. People simply don’t play by the rules anymore, and that’s the problem both on Earth and elsewhere.
What if a Ukraine, Taiwan, or South China Sea situation happens on the moon? What would anyone be able to do about it?
With this rather disgusting background, there’s an unhealthy level of naivete in this sparkling future vision of the moon. All that money and all those hopes could be instantly at risk on the basis of a tantrum.
Cooperative and transparent ventures are not out of the question, just highly unlikely due to the inherent lack of trust in international politics. Who knows, some honesty may occur, probably unwittingly.
This is the future of humanity being turned into an accounting entity. Space resources could deliver that famous future but it’ll take some creative cynicism to make it happen.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
